Monday, October 27th, 2014 at 7:14pm. 27 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life." --Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple, Inc.
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... All of us working in the housing market have long trusted that real estate was destined to recover, and signs of that continue to abound. September saw Existing Home Sales head up 2.4%, to a very healthy 5.17 million unit annual rate. They've gained now in five of the last six months and are at their highest annual pace of the year. Sales are still off a bit compared to a year ago, but other data is up. The median price is up 5.6% and average prices are up 3.7% versus last
Saturday, October 25th, 2014 at 9:07pm. 45 Views, 0 Comments.
COMMENTARY: I wouldn’t call it a boring week but there wasn’t much action for mortgage investors to get irritated about and when economic news is thin or non-existent - trading action in the equity markets tends to exert a stronger influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage rates.
Looking ahead to next week - Uncle Sam will be in the credit markets conducting a three-day, three-part debt auction of $93 billion in T-bills and the economic calendar offers September Durable Goods Order numberson Tuesday, revised Q3 GDP figures on Thursday and the September Personal Income and Spending stats on Friday.
The biggest news will be the post-meeting statement from the Fed on Wednesday. Investors broadly expect the end of QE3 bond buying at this meeting…
Monday, October 20th, 2014 at 3:40pm. 44 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "The universe is under no obligation to make sense to you." --Neil deGrasse Tyson, American astrophysicist and author
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Much of the media's housing market coverage must also be under no obligation to make sense. While we hear all kinds of negative reporting on housing, the data continues to be encouraging. September Housing Starts were up 6.3%, to a higher than expected 1.017 million annual rate. The naysayers pointed to the greater rise in multi-family starts, but single family starts were still ahead for the month and up 11.0% for the year. The 12-month moving average is at its highest level since September 2008, while total homes under construction are up 19.5% over a
Saturday, October 18th, 2014 at 6:33am. 47 Views, 0 Comments.
COMMENTARY: It was an extremely interesting week following Wednesday’s whip-saw trading action in the mortgage market. With 30 year rates generally at 4.125% for the last few weeks, the mortgage market took a precipitous dive and rates dropped to 3.75% for about 3 hours before clawing their way back to 4% which is where they stand now. Don’t see that happen much around here!
A number of analysts are suggesting developing global economic weakness will have a negative impact on U.S. economic growth as overseas demand for our goods and services diminishes. The concern is that domestic manufacturing will tumble, company profits will decline and US job creation will slump. While all of that is "bad news" for the economy -- it is generally "good news"…
Friday, October 10th, 2014 at 5:39pm. 181 Views, 0 Comments.
COMMENTARY: Since I left for a 2-week vacation with my wife to celebrate 10 years of wedded bliss J, the mortgage market was kind enough to not only cooperate but to actually retract a bit. As I view my last rate sheet from Sept 19th, every mortgage rate has decreased, some as much as ¼%! The big question is why. Many would have guessed it had something to do with last week’s monthly job’s report but it actually came in higher than expected. With the absence of any catastrophic world event, that left only one possibility… the Federal Reserve’s post-meeting minutes from Wednesday. The minutes showed that the Fed was worried about slowing global growth, especially in China and the euro zone. This coupled with the rapidly rising US Dollar (I…
Monday, October 6th, 2014 at 4:25pm. 61 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Don't spend time beating on a wall hoping to transform it into a door." --Coco Chanel, French fashion designer
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... It seems like more than a few observers are beating on the housing market trying to transform it into a disaster that it isn't. For example, some jumped all over the 1% drop in the Pending Home Sales index for August.But this measure of contract signings is still above 100, considered an average level of activity, for the fourth month in a row. It's also at the second highest level since last August. The National Association of Realtors chief economist sees contract signings holding steady, with fewer investors and distressed sales causing the dip. He said,
Tuesday, September 30th, 2014 at 6:50am. 125 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Life is like the ocean, it goes up and down." --Vanessa Paradis, French singer, model, and actress
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Life in the housing market sure mimicked the ocean last week. Let's start with the up part. New single-family home sales blasted up 18.0% in August, reaching a solid 504,000 unit annual rate. These sales are now 33% ahead of where they were a year ago, hitting their highest level in more than six years and posting their biggest monthly jump in 22 years! Plus, the median price of new homes sold was up 8.0% versus a year ago. With all the torrid selling going on, the months' supply of new homes fell to 4.8, but inventories grew by 2,000 units although they're still quite low.
Monday, September 22nd, 2014 at 5:42pm. 93 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Things are not always as they seem; the first appearance deceives many." --Phaedrus, Roman poet and fabulist
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The ancient Roman writer of fables certainly hit the nail on the head with regard to last week's housing reports. Housing Starts dipped 14.4% in August to a 956,000 annual rate, while Building Permits dropped 5.6% to a 998,000 annual rate. With both numbers coming in under a million units a year, pundits were quick to declare that the home building recovery is over. But they were truly deceived. Even with the August decline, starts are up 8.0% over a year ago. The multi-family sector is a bit stronger, but single-family starts are still up 4.2% in the past year.
Friday, September 19th, 2014 at 1:42pm. 111 Views, 0 Comments.
COMMENTARY: As we began the week, every investor’s eyes were focused solely on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee’s post-closing statement. Fortunately, the Fed followed the script and elected to leave the phrase "considerable time" fully in place as they discussed when they might first begin to tighten short-term interest rates. Most pundits believe that these rates (used for HELOCs, credit cards, and to a certain extent, long term mortgage rates) will begin to increase by mid-2015 if our labor market continues its current course. Looks like we dodged another bullet and Chairwoman Yellen continues to be “the most interesting woman in the world”!
In the coming week, investors will be reviewing the housing sector in the form of Monday's August…
Tuesday, September 16th, 2014 at 7:06am. 243 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Be so good they can't ignore you." --Steve Martin, American actor, writer, and musician
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The housing market isn't quite as good as Mr. Martin advises, but it's a lot better than some media pundits would have us believe. Last week, one of the world's leading independent macro-economic research companies gave its bullish assessment of the U.S. housing market and mortgage growth. Their property economist said that the weak August jobs report was "probably just an isolated blip." He feels that "indicators such as initial jobless claims suggest that labor market conditions are still strengthening." Jobs of course are key to the housing recovery.
This economist noted that with