Monday, November 24th, 2014 at 4:48pm. 16 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance."--George Bernard Shaw, Irish playwright and essayist
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... These days, it's easy to acquire false knowledge if you don't dig into the data. For example, Housing Starts fell 2.8% in October, so does that bit of knowledge prove home building is on the decline? Not at all. Starts are up almost 8% from a year ago and the monthly dip was all due to multi-family construction.Single family starts were up 4.2%, and are 15.4% ahead the past year. The 12-month moving average is at its highest level since September 2008, and the total number of homes under construction is up 20.1% from a year ago. October Building Permits
Friday, November 21st, 2014 at 11:30pm. 43 Views, 0 Comments.
COMMENTARY: Ending sentence from last Friday regarding this week’s rates “… so it would seem that we’re in for much of the same, low and steady rates.” A prophetic statement indeed as rates this week sailed calm waters and even dropped a bit. Some investors were undoubtedly considering the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday and have chosen to remain on the sidelines rather than deal with risk considerations during next week's short trading sessions. The mortgage market will be closed on Thursday, November 27th and will close early at 2:00 p.m. ET on Friday, November 28th.
Just prior to the holiday break Uncle Sam will be in the credit markets conducting a three-part $92 billion debt sale running from Monday through Wednesday. That is a lot of supply…
Monday, November 17th, 2014 at 3:05pm. 35 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "You don't have to be a mathematician to have a feel for numbers." --John Forbes Nash, Jr., American mathematician and game theorist
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Those of us working in the housing market certainly have a pretty good feel for numbers and, fortunately, good ones continue to appear. Fannie Mae's October National Housing Survey reported that 44% of consumers say now is a good time to sell a house, an all-time survey high, while 65% say now is a good time to buy. Their chief economist explained, "The narrowing gap between home buying and home selling sentiment may foreshadow increased housing inventory levels and a better balance of housing supply and demand." He concluded, "These results
Friday, November 14th, 2014 at 9:47pm. 39 Views, 0 Comments.
COMMENTARY: As predicted last Friday, the only item of note for this week was today’s release of the October Retail Sales figures. The original thought was that the report data would either serve as an accelerant to a stock market sell-off -- or it would sling-shot the Dow to new record highs. As it turns out, the report exactly matched the consensus estimate of economists - which essentially means the "coin" has landed on its edge and rates remained static for the week.
Ahead for next week -- there is nothing of much consequence affecting mortgage interest rates in one particular direction or the other. Monday's October Industrial Production and Capacity report and Tuesday's October Producer Price Index will draw little more than a passing glance…
Friday, November 7th, 2014 at 6:23pm. 88 Views, 0 Comments.
COMMENTARY: In a bit of surprise, US employers created 214,000 new jobs in October, just a bit short of the 235,000+ many economists had predicted. Reaction from mortgage investors has led to steady and perhaps incrementally lower mortgage rates. It’s a debate though, as many economists are arguing that along with a national jobless rate of 5.8%, the labor market is proving to be very resilient. The fact the October nonfarm payroll gain marks the ninth straight month the economy has added 200,000 jobs or more, a feat last accomplished in 1994, is a centerpiece of these economists' position the labor sector is on a robust and sustainable growth track. Such thoughts generally lead to higher mortgage rates.
The opposing group of economists argue the…
Monday, November 3rd, 2014 at 3:52pm. 105 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Nothing can substitute for just plain hard work. I had to put in the time to get back. And it was a grind." --Andre Agassi, American retired professional tennis player and former World No. 1
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Realtors are clearly working hard, grinding out a0.3% rise in Pending Home Sales in September, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This measure of existing homes under contract but not yet closed is now 1% higher than a year ago, above year-over-year levels for the first time in 11 months. The NAR's chief economist commented, "...the current spectacularly low mortgage rates should help more buyers reach the market." He also observed "...supply for existing homes was up in…
Friday, October 31st, 2014 at 9:38pm. 93 Views, 0 Comments.
COMMENTARY: This was a week focused solely on Wednesday’s post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. As broadly expected, the Fed announced the end of their "QE" stimulus programs which has done wonders to keep mortgage rates artificially low but has now run its course. Thankfully, they also stated their intent to continue to reinvest the principal payments from their $4.3 trillion balance sheet in new issues of Treasury debt obligations and agency mortgage-backed securities. This strategy is expected to prove supportive of relatively steady mortgage interest rates ahead. The members also stated very clearly they believe it will be appropriate to maintain benchmark short-term interest rates near zero for a considerable time.…
Monday, October 27th, 2014 at 7:14pm. 123 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life." --Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple, Inc.
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... All of us working in the housing market have long trusted that real estate was destined to recover, and signs of that continue to abound. September saw Existing Home Sales head up 2.4%, to a very healthy 5.17 million unit annual rate. They've gained now in five of the last six months and are at their highest annual pace of the year. Sales are still off a bit compared to a year ago, but other data is up. The median price is up 5.6% and average prices are up 3.7% versus last
Saturday, October 25th, 2014 at 9:07pm. 100 Views, 0 Comments.
COMMENTARY: I wouldn’t call it a boring week but there wasn’t much action for mortgage investors to get irritated about and when economic news is thin or non-existent - trading action in the equity markets tends to exert a stronger influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage rates.
Looking ahead to next week - Uncle Sam will be in the credit markets conducting a three-day, three-part debt auction of $93 billion in T-bills and the economic calendar offers September Durable Goods Order numberson Tuesday, revised Q3 GDP figures on Thursday and the September Personal Income and Spending stats on Friday.
The biggest news will be the post-meeting statement from the Fed on Wednesday. Investors broadly expect the end of QE3 bond buying at this meeting…
Monday, October 20th, 2014 at 3:40pm. 75 Views, 0 Comments.
>> Market UpdateQUOTE OF THE WEEK... "The universe is under no obligation to make sense to you." --Neil deGrasse Tyson, American astrophysicist and author
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Much of the media's housing market coverage must also be under no obligation to make sense. While we hear all kinds of negative reporting on housing, the data continues to be encouraging. September Housing Starts were up 6.3%, to a higher than expected 1.017 million annual rate. The naysayers pointed to the greater rise in multi-family starts, but single family starts were still ahead for the month and up 11.0% for the year. The 12-month moving average is at its highest level since September 2008, while total homes under construction are up 19.5% over a