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Tom Hardel Market Update

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014 at 7:11am. 16 Views, 0 Comments.

>> Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress."--Niels Bohr, Danish physicist 

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The dictionary defines "paradox" as a seemingly self-contradictory statement that when investigated may prove to be true. Last week's housing news indeed presented a paradox. Housing Starts took a hefty 9.3% drop in June while the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported member confidence at a 6-month high! In fact, the NAHB builder index rose to a reading of 53, reflecting good sales conditions and a positive outlook going forward. The NAHB Chairman offered, "This is the first time that builder confidence has been above 50 since January and an…

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Saturday, July 19th, 2014 at 7:15am. 27 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARY: Rates were following the normal slow-changing summer pattern this week when the wonton disregard for human life came into focus in Europe.  Mortgage prices got a boost higher (rates lowered) yesterday from a flow of “flight-to-quality” buying favoring dollar-denominated assets – particularly Treasury debt obligations and agency eligible mortgage-backed securities.  The buying was driven by knee-jerk reactions related to the downing of the Malaysian airline over the Ukraine and the escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Investors have largely moved to the sidelines today to await further developments related to these two stories.  It’s a helluva way for mortgage rates to decrease but it is what it is. 

Looking ahead to the coming

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rate Sheet

Saturday, July 12th, 2014 at 7:38am. 118 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARY: As is wont to happen during the dog days of summer, this week was pretty blasé from a mortgage rate standpoint.  Wednesday’s release of notes from the recent Federal Reserve meeting revealed nothing that everyone didn’t already know and Thursday’s Labor Department unemployment report showed a 11,000 reduction in new claims filed. Jobless claims have now fallen to their lowest level since just before the 2007-09 recession, a sign of much improved demand in the labor sector.  With such uninteresting news, mortgage interest rates were most influenced by trading activity in the stock markets during the entire week. Higher stock prices tend to drag mortgage interest rates fractionally higher while lower stock prices will probably prove supportive

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rate Sheet

Friday, July 4th, 2014 at 9:15pm. 126 Views, 0 Comments.

Happy 4th of July!     Below (and attached) please find your weekend ratesheet.

COMMENTARY: Yesterday’s June nonfarm payroll report was hotter than a firecracker -- with headline job growth of 288,000 and a jobless rate that slumped to a six-year low of 6.1%. This is first time since the late 1990s that employment has grown above a 200,000 job pace for five straight months.

The initial reaction among mortgage investors was to push rates higher by about an 1/8th % but that reaction was a bit muted considering the unexpected growth. I think there will be considerable discussion regarding inflation and if it will likely stay below the Fed's tolerance level of 2% for extended period of time. If so it is equally likely mortgage interest rates will not

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Friday, June 27th, 2014 at 7:34pm. 91 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARYThe big deal this week was the Commerce Department report for May Personal Income showing spending only grew 0.2% -- with most of the spending going toward new cars and trucks. The puny spending data caused many economists to rethink their forecasts and mortgage rates benefited by the downgrade.

Looking forward to next week, the June nonfarm payroll data will be released at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, July 3rd. The mortgage market will close early that same afternoon at 2:00 PM ET in front of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.  Market participants have already priced in expectations that the headline nonfarm payrolls has grown by 210,000 in June after posting a similar gain of 217,000 in May. The consensus estimate indicates the majority

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rate Sheet

Saturday, June 21st, 2014 at 6:10am. 151 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARYOnce again, mortgage rates for the week were most significantly influenced by trading action in the stock markets and Wednesday’s expected decision from the Federal Open Market Committee to slash $10 billion from their QE3 stimulus program was "baked-in-the-cake" and its impact was non-existent.

Looking ahead to the coming week --  Other than a few minor housing start reports, there is nothing on the coming week's economic calendar that is likely to pack enough "punch" to influence the direction of mortgage interest rates one way or the other.  Uncle Sam will be banging around in the credit markets looking to borrow $94 billion and will likely find strong enough demand for its T-bills to have a negligible impact on the current trend

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Friday, June 13th, 2014 at 8:10pm. 74 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARY: Mortgage rates for the week were most significantly influenced by trading action in the stock markets.  The Commerce Department reported Thursday that US retail sales rose less than expected in May which normally would have been good for lower rates but it was mostly neutralized by significant positive revisions to the April figures.  Today, the Labor Department reported US producer prices unexpectedly sank 0.2% in May -- a notable plunge after the index gained 0.6% in April. Excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core producer price index remained unchanged on a month-over-month basis. The news was generally mortgage interest rate neutral. The overall inflation backdrop currently remains very tame.

Looking ahead

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Friday, June 6th, 2014 at 8:04pm. 140 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARY: Last week, the nail-biter event for this week was today’s jobs report and the consensus "guesstimate" from the nation's economists proved clairvoyant.  The median estimate of economists called for 215,000 new jobs to be created in May - - and as it turns out, the economy actually created 217,000 new jobs, according to data released this morning from the Labor Department. The national jobless rate remained unchanged at 6.3% and earnings were up slightly.  That is the good news part of today's story from the labor sector.

The bad news is the majority of new job creation is occurring in only three broadly defined sectors of the labor market: business/professional services, education/health care and leisure/hospitality services. The first two

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Summit Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates

Saturday, May 31st, 2014 at 3:35am. 344 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARY: Government reports for the week showed a continued weakness in the US economy with both GDP and Consumer spending coming in lower than expected.  Although this environment will tend to be good for mortgage rates, it is not so productive for folks taking the plunge and buying new homes. 

Looking ahead to the coming week the economic calendar will be light during the run-up to Friday's much-anticipated May nonfarm payroll report. Investors will get a look at the current pace of activity in the manufacturing sector on Monday -- and will follow-up on Wednesday with the release of their Service Sector index.  Neither report is expected to have much effect on mortgage rates.  After Wednesday morning's report is out of the way, mortgage investors

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Wednesday, May 28th, 2014 at 7:14am. 112 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARY: With another week of little change in the mortgage market, today’s analysis is a bit different.  The “National” housing market is finally starting to show signs of sustained growth and as we here in Naples fully understand now, our market does depend on sales in IL, NY, PA and CT!  Sales of single-family homes rose 6.4% in April and the inventory of new homes on the market hit a 3 year high. The median sales price is $275,800 in April, down 1.3% from a year earlier. The supply of new homes on the market fell to 5.3 months at the April sales pace from 5.6 months in March. 

Media talking heads continue to suggest rising mortgage interest rates are the biggest impediment to home sales growth. I strongly disagree with that assessment. The

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