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Tom Hardel Market Update

Monday, December 15th, 2014 at 7:46pm. 27 Views, 0 Comments.

>> Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Motivation determines what you do. Attitude determines how well you do it."--Lou Holtz, American college football analyst and former coach

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... We all do better with an upbeat attitude and there are plenty of reasons to have one now. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported their Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) increased 1.2% in November to 114.6. Increases are indicative of a loosening of credit. In line with this, the most recent MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey reported the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index UP 1% from the week before. And, as of September, the year-over-year share of cash sales fell for the 21st month in a row, according to a major provider…

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Friday, December 12th, 2014 at 10:50pm. 39 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARY: 30 year fixed below 4%.  Wow!  would almost call it a Christmas Miracle because so many statistics would seem to indicate rates trending upwards especially in light of last week’s robust jobs report.  For this reason, the great debate has begun among investors regarding the Federal Reserve meeting next Wednesday.  Many investors believe the Fed will set the stage for the first hike in the nation’s Prime Rate since June 2006.  In a nutshell, these economists sees falling oil prices literally handing tons of cash to consumption deprived consumers to spend on everything from clothing to computers and beyond and they are very concerned about potential inflationary pressures coming to bear.

On the other side of the coin, others believe the Fed

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Tom Hardel Market Update

Monday, December 8th, 2014 at 1:27pm. 54 Views, 0 Comments.

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "The greatest thing you can do is surprise yourself."--Steve Martin, American comedian, actor, musician and writer

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The housing market gives us many opportunities to surprise ourselves. Forthwith, some of the latest. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for November 28 reported their seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was up 3% from the week before. Another nice surprise came when residential construction posted a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $353.8 billion in October, up 1.3% from the month before. Some folks were also surprised to see theSeptember 10-city S&P Case-Shiller home price index up 4.8% year-over-year, the strongest

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Friday, December 5th, 2014 at 8:22pm. 62 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARYDue to unforeseen circumstances last week I was remiss in not sending you your Weekend Rates on Friday (my laptop remained in the garage while wifey and I packed for Thanksgiving weekend in Sarasota L).  If I had sent it however, I would have warned that rates this week would be almost entirely dependent upon November’s jobs report and that Mortgage investors broadly anticipated the pace of job creation would come in somewhere around 225,000 or less.  Well, that would have been a terrible guess.  Today’s report of 321,000 new jobs eclipsed the upside target of even the most optimistic economist and was the largest increase since January 2012. So your next question should be why haven’t mortgage rates gone through the roof?  As usual, the devil

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Tom Hardel Market Update

Monday, December 1st, 2014 at 1:32pm. 59 Views, 0 Comments.

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Change before you have to."--Jack Welch, retired American business executive and author

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... GE's former CEO is basically saying it pays to anticipate the changing needs of your business, and that's always a good idea in real estate. Those who are dealing well with change have no doubt benefited from October's 0.7% rise in New Home Sales, now at a 458,000 annual rate. This figure was a little lower than expected, but these sales are still up 1.8% over a year ago and are tied with last May as the highest level since mid-2008. New home sales are certainly below where they should be now in the recovery, but there has been a slight shift by buyers to multi-family homes (urban

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Tom Hardel Market Update

Monday, November 24th, 2014 at 4:48pm. 67 Views, 0 Comments.

>> Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance."--George Bernard Shaw, Irish playwright and essayist

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... These days, it's easy to acquire false knowledge if you don't dig into the data. For example, Housing Starts fell 2.8% in October, so does that bit of knowledge prove home building is on the decline? Not at all. Starts are up almost 8% from a year ago and the monthly dip was all due to multi-family construction.Single family starts were up 4.2%, and are 15.4% ahead the past year. The 12-month moving average is at its highest level since September 2008, and the total number of homes under construction is up 20.1% from a year ago. October Building Permits

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Friday, November 21st, 2014 at 11:30pm. 118 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARYEnding sentence from last Friday regarding this week’s rates “… so it would seem that we’re in for much of the same, low and steady rates.”  A prophetic statement indeed as rates this week sailed calm waters and even dropped a bit.  Some investors were undoubtedly considering the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday and have chosen to remain on the sidelines rather than deal with risk considerations during next week's short trading sessions. The mortgage market will be closed on Thursday, November 27th and will close early at 2:00 p.m. ET on Friday, November 28th.  

Just prior to the holiday break Uncle Sam will be in the credit markets conducting a three-part $92 billion debt sale running from Monday through Wednesday. That is a lot of supply

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Tom Hardel Market Update

Monday, November 17th, 2014 at 3:05pm. 90 Views, 0 Comments.

>> Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "You don't have to be a mathematician to have a feel for numbers." --John Forbes Nash, Jr., American mathematician and game theorist

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Those of us working in the housing market certainly have a pretty good feel for numbers and, fortunately, good ones continue to appear. Fannie Mae's October National Housing Survey reported that 44% of consumers say now is a good time to sell a house, an all-time survey high, while 65% say now is a good time to buy. Their chief economist explained, "The narrowing gap between home buying and home selling sentiment may foreshadow increased housing inventory levels and a better balance of housing supply and demand." He concluded, "These results

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Friday, November 14th, 2014 at 9:47pm. 69 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARYAs predicted last Friday, the only item of note for this week was today’s release of the October Retail Sales figures. The original thought was that the report data would either serve as an accelerant to a stock market sell-off -- or it would sling-shot the Dow to new record highs. As it turns out, the report exactly matched the consensus estimate of economists - which essentially means the "coin" has landed on its edge and rates remained static for the week.

Ahead for next week -- there is nothing of much consequence affecting mortgage interest rates in one particular direction or the other.  Monday's October Industrial Production and Capacity report and Tuesday's October Producer Price Index will draw little more than a passing glance

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Summit Mortgage Weekly Rates

Friday, November 7th, 2014 at 6:23pm. 128 Views, 0 Comments.

COMMENTARY: In a bit of surprise, US employers created 214,000 new jobs in October, just a bit short of the 235,000+ many economists had predicted.  Reaction from mortgage investors has led to steady and perhaps incrementally lower mortgage rates.  It’s a debate though, as many economists are arguing that along with a national jobless rate of 5.8%, the labor market is proving to be very resilient. The fact the October nonfarm payroll gain marks the ninth straight month the economy has added 200,000 jobs or more, a feat last accomplished in 1994, is a centerpiece of these economists' position the labor sector is on a robust and sustainable growth track.  Such thoughts generally lead to higher mortgage rates.

The opposing group of economists argue the

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